000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU DEC 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 05N90W TO 06N103W. THE
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N103W TO 07N124W TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N
TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90 NM
N OF AXIS W OF 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 34N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF
TRADE WINDS...PARTICULARLY FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 130W...AND FROM
08N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. IN ADDITION...THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SAME RIDGE AND A TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
IS ALSO PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS JUST OFF
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...MAINLY N OF 28N E OF 125W AS
NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS ALSO INDICATED SEAS IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE IN THIS
AREA...LIKELY DUE IN PART TO ONGOING NW SWELL. THE HIGH PRES
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER ONE LATE THU INTO FRI. AS A
RESULT...THE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN FRI EVENING
INTO SAT SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
TROPICS AND PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT NW 20-25 KT WINDS TO
THE N OF 30N ON FRI NIGHT...AND 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF LATE SAT...WITH A MINIMAL GALE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF BY FRI AFTERNOON. 

COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT RESULTING FROM NW SWELL AND NE WIND
WAVES DOMINATE MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. SEAS GREATER THAN
12 FT ARE NOTED N OF 25N E OF 128W IN NW SWELL. ADDITIONAL
PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NW
WATERS LATE SUN INTO MON BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE
FAR NW PORTION BUT GENERALLY SUBSIDING TO 10-12 FT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER PULSE OF STRONG WINDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE
RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW RESULTING IN 8-10 FT
COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 10N93W DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
THE SOURCE REGION OF THESE WINDS WILL ALSO EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF
FONSECA BY EARLY FRI MORNING. AT THAT TIME...FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM 9.5N TO 13N E OF 92W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF FONSECA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH BY FRI EVENING.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL
INTO THE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THU THROUGH SAT AND
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.   
  
$$
GR