000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231553 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED DEC 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 05N85W TO 06N102W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N102W TO 07N110W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 19N110W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AS NOTED IN AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS. CONCURRENT ALTIMETER PASSES ALSO INDICATED SEAS TO 8 TO 11 FT...LIKELY DUE IN PART TO ONGOING NW SWELL. THE RIDGE WEAKENS THROUGH THU ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 20 KT ALTHOUGH THE NW SWELL WILL PERSIST. THE SWELL IS THE MAIN COMPONENT OF AN AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER MAINLY WEST OF 110W INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON FRI EVENING INTO SAT WITH 20-25 KT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN N OF 24N...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 10-15 FT COMBINED SEAS. THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING NW 20- 25 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 30N ON FRI NIGHT...AND 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF LATE SAT...WITH A MINIMAL GALE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY SAT. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON MON AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-23 KT CONDITIONS MON NIGHT. S OF 15N E OF 110W...GAP WINDS FLOW HAS TAPERED OFF FOR NOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER PULSE OF STRONG WINDS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW RESULTING IN 7-10 FT COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 10N93W ON DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE SOURCE REGION OF THESE WINDS WILL ALSO EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE GULF OF FONSECA BY THU NIGHT. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVERNIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR 30N125W TO NEAR 15N110W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHES NEAR 30N140W ON SAT NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW-N WIND SHIFT...BUT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN 8-14 FT POST-FRONTAL COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION BUT GENERALLY SUBSIDING TO 10-12 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. $$ CHRISTENSEN