000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230952 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED DEC 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 06N77W TO 04N86W TO 06N102W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W TO 07N115W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N85W TO 04N93W TO 07N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N112W TO 08N124W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 05N139W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N120W TO 15N106W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF A LINE FROM 27N117W TO 32N122W...WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT. MOSTLY 20 KT NW-N WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-13 FT ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N E OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN TODAY WITH THESE NW WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KT NEAR GALE FORCE BETWEEN 31- 32N WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS TO THE N OF 32N. THESE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 11-17 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N TONIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE GRADIENT THEN BEGINNING TO BRIEFLY RELAX FROM THE N ON THU NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON FRI EVENING INTO SAT WITH 20-25 KT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN N OF 24N...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 10-15 FT COMBINED SEAS. THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING NW 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 30N ON FRI NIGHT...AND 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF LATE SAT...WITH A MINIMAL GALE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY SAT. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON MON AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-23 KT CONDITIONS MON NIGHT. ANTICYCLONIC 10-20 KT FLOW IS NOTED ELSEWHERE W OF 106W...AND NW- N 5-15 KT FLOW NOTED ELSEWHERE E OF 106W. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME TODAY THEN INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING LATE THU. N-NE 20-25 KT FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA NEAR 23N ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. S OF 15N E OF 110W...LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY TONIGHT A LITTLE N OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ROUGHLY WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N87W TO 12N89W. EXPECT STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PAPAGAYO TO BEGIN AGAIN ON THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW RESULTING IN 7-10 FT COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 10N93W ON DURING THE AFTERNOONS. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT BEGINNING ON THU NIGHT WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 08.5N79.5W TO 06N79.5W...TO INCLUDE THE W GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR 30N128W TO NEAR 15N105W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHES NEAR 30N140W ON SAT NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW-N WIND SHIFT...BUT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN 8-14 FT POST-FRONTAL COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION BUT GENERALLY SUBSIDING TO 10-12 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. $$ NELSON