000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE DEC 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N90W. ITCZ AXIS IS FROM
06N92W TO 06N113W TO 04N128W TO 05N136W TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT
139W FROM 01N TO 08N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM TROUGH E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND
124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N
TO 05N W OF 139W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE...A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF AREA NEAR 33N149W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
NEAR 20N106W. A GALE IS N OF THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF S
CALIFORNIA. NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF 28N E OF 118W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE HIGH AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING W OF LINE FROM 23N140W TO
17N120W TO 04N140W NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
OF NOTE...W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO FROM 18N TO 20N E OF 107W
N WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT FRESH
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW
RESULTING IN 6-9 FT COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 09N91W.
EXPECT THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON
THU NIGHT.

UPPER LEVELS...A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF
22N W OF 125W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND N MEXICO N OF 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. EXPECT
THIS PATTERN TO BECOME ALMOST ZONAL IN 48 HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE
FURTHER E...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS S OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA FROM 10N TO 10S E OF 90W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT
THIS TROUGH TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE IN 48 HOURS. 
  
$$
FORMOSA