000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE DEC 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS
REACHES FROM 06N92W TO 06.5N112W TO 03.5N129W TO AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH AT 137W FROM 02N TO 06N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH E OF 90W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180
NMN OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG NW
FLOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THESE WINDS ARE
PART OF A SURGE BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS
ALONG A 1031 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N148W TOWARD THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND TROUGHING OVER N
CENTRAL MEXICO. THE WIND SURGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THEN WESTWARD TO 25N130W...MOVING SOUTHWARD. NW
SWELL ACCOMPANIES THE WIND SURGE WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING AS HIGH AS 15 FT N OF GUADALUPE ISLAND BY LATE WED DUE
IN PART TO 14 TO 16 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL. THE WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGH EARLY THU LEAVING LINGERING NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT
THROUGH THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT PERSIST OFF
CABO CORRIENTES BETWEEN HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND AND THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY.
LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION DELIVERING ANOTHER SURGE OF NW WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FRI AND SAT FOLLOWING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. NW WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT WITH SEAS
BULDING TO 9 FT. 

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT FRESH CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW RESULTING IN 6-
9 FT COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 09N91W. EXPECT THE
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON THU NIGHT.
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST EARLY TODAY WITHIN 30 NM OF
LINE FROM 08.5N80W TO 06N80W...TO INCLUDE THE W GULF OF PANAMA. 

ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO BEYOND 15N110W.
STRONG NE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY W OF 120W AND SW OF THE
RIDGE...WITH SEAS 8-14 FT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
SUPPORTING MOSTLY FRESH TRADES...WITH SMALL EMBEDDED PATCHES OF
STRONG TRADES...ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPPER DYNAMICS RELATED TO AN
UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE ARE SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITHIN 180
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
REACHES 30N140W ON SAT NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-
NW-N WIND SHIFT...BUT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL RESULTING IN 8-14 FT POST-FRONTAL COMBINED SEAS. 
  
$$
CHRISTENSEN