000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE DEC 22 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
07N77W TO 03N88W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ
FORMS AT 06N90W AND EXTENDS W TO 06N120W...THEN DIPS SW TO
04N126W...THEN TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 05N137W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN
150 NM OF 04N87W AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
12N112W TO 05N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 10N130W TO 13N136W...AND ALSO WITHIN
30 NM OF 04.5N136W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N120W TO
15N105W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 20-25
KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THE GRADIENT
WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN TODAY WITH THESE STRONG WINDS SPREADING S
TO ALONG 27N TONIGHT WITH THE WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KT ALONG
32N AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THU. THESE STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 11-17 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS N OF 24N ON WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE GRADIENT THEN
BEGINNING TO BRIEFLY RELAX FROM THE N ON FRI. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH 20-25
KT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN N OF 24N...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
11-16 FT SEAS. THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING NW 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE
N OF 30N ON FRI NIGHT...AND 20-30 KT WINDS EVERYWHERE N OF 24N
ON SAT...WITH A MINIMAL GALE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

NORTHERLY 20-25 KT DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LIGHT WINDS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
FRI...INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ON FRI NIGHT.

ANTICYCLONIC 15-20 KT FLOW IS NOTED ELSEWHERE W OF 106W...AND NW-
N 5-15 KT FLOW NOTED ELSEWHERE E OF 106W THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN
THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT N-NE 20-25 KT FLOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA NEAR 23N ON SAT NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT FRESH CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW RESULTING IN 6-
9 FT COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 09N91W. EXPECT THE
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON THU NIGHT.
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST EARLY TODAY WITHIN 30 NM OF
LINE FROM 08.5N80W TO 06N80W...TO INCLUDE THE W GULF OF PANAMA. 

ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO BEYOND 15N110W.
STRONG NE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY W OF 120W AND SW OF THE
RIDGE...WITH SEAS 8-14 FT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
SUPPORTING MOSTLY FRESH TRADES...WITH SMALL EMBEDDED PATCHES OF
STRONG TRADES...ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHES
30N140W ON SAT NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW-N
WIND SHIFT...BUT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL RESULTING IN 8-14 FT POST-FRONTAL COMBINED SEAS. 
  
$$
NELSON