000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON DEC 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 03N84W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 05N96W TO06N110W TO 05N120W TO 06N120W TO BEYOND
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND
117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N
BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS PERSIST OFF
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BETWEEN
RIDGING ALONG ROUGHLY 28N TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 8 TO 9 FT OFF THE
COAST LARGELY DUE TO 15 SECOND NW SWELL PROPAGATING TO THE
SSE...AND WILL REACH SOCORRO ISLAND BY TONIGHT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH MEXICO FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND
TUE...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY TUE. THIS WILL BE REINFORCED THROUGH
MID WEEK AND THE AREA OF STRONG NW WINDS WILL EXPAND W OF 120W
THROUGH WED...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL WITH 12
TO 15 FT COMBINED SEAS. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRI INTO SAT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE BAJA COAST AND AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON TUE AS WINDS VEERS TO THE E-SE
ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLC. FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC REGION. AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS INDICATED FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM TO
NEAR 09N91W. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME TONIGHT WITH 20-
25 KT CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE EVENING. LARGE AND
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE NW AND SW CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF
THE WATERS W OF 110W MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES.
MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS OF 13-14 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS BY TUE. 

ELSEWHERE...A 1033 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N148W EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 28N125W THEN
SE TO TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS COVERING MAINLY THE WATERS FROM 04N TO 22N W OF 125W. THE
HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION AND MAINTAINING THE LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AFTER
MID WEEK ALLOWING THE STRONG TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE. PRIMARILY NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8
FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK HOWEVER.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN