000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON DEC 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 04N91W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 04N91W TO 05N100W TO 4.5N120W TO BEYOND 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 05N
TO 06.5N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO
08N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W...AND FROM 01N TO
07.5N W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1033 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N148W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
SUPPORTS A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS COVERING MAINLY
THE WATERS FROM 06N TO 24N W OF 126W...AND FROM 10N TO 21N
BETWEEN 119W AND 126W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE
ALSO NOTED PER A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS JUST OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...PARTICULARLY N OF 25N E OF 119W. THE HIGH
PRES SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...KEEPING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION. AS A RESULT...A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS...LIKELY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ON TUE...WILL PERSIST AS
WELL AS THE NW-N WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE JUST OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 

LARGE AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE NW CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES.
MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS OF 13-14 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS BY TUE. E OF 110W...
THE NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH THE NE WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE
GAP WIND EVENTS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. SEAS THERE ARE
IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE E OF 110W ON
TUE AS THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT ENDS AND WINDS ACROSS PAPAGAYO
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHES. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL REACH THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST REGION LATER TODAY. THIS
SWELL EVENT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 13-14 FT ACROSS THE NE WATERS BY
WED. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO
15-20 KT ON TUE AS WINDS VEERS TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO. LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLC. FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC REGION. A RECENT WINDSAT PASS INDICATES FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM TO
NEAR 09N91W. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME TONIGHT WITH 20-
25 KT CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE EVENING. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY ARE FUNNELING
INTO THIS GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SHIP CALL SIGN DGAF
LOCATED NEAR 07N79.5W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20 KT. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  
 
$$
GR