000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON DEC 21 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
07N77W TO 04N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ
FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH
AT05N130W...THEN THE ITCZ CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 02N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE
EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N81W TO 02N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ...AND THE EMBEDDED
TROUGH...WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N106W TO
07N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N120W TO
15N102W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS
EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 25N...AND 4-7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S
OF 25N...INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N E OF
117W WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TODAY...THEN INCREASING TO 20-
25 KT N OF 28N E OF 118W TO THE BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT...THEN
EXPANDING W TO ALONG 120W ON TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-
14 FT ON WED INTO THU. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE GRADIENT WILL
FURTHER TIGHTEN ON FRI WITH NW-N 20-30 KT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
N OF 26N. NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...AND FURTHER
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON TUE. LIGHT WINDS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
FRI...INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ON FRI NIGHT.    
 
S OF 15N E OF 110W...HIGH PRES CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLC. FRESH E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
FUNNEL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. STRONG
TO NEAR GALE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
11.5N86W TO 09.5N90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH
SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL PROPAGATES SW RESULTING
IN 6-9 FT SEAS FROM 06-12N BETWEEN 89-94W. THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX SOME TONIGHT WITH 20-25 KT CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE EVENING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST EARLY
TODAY WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 08.5N80W TO 06N80W TO INCLUDE
THE W GULF OF PANAMA. 

ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO BEYOND 15N110W.
STRONG NE TRADES WILL CONTINUE W OF 120W AND SW OF THE
RIDGE...WITH SEAS 8-13 FT... THROUGH LATE TUE...THEN THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING FRESH TRADES BY LATE WED.   
  
$$
NELSON