000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN DEC 20 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE 30-40 KT GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N96W...WITH 11-19 FT
SEAS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 14N95.5W. A LARGE AREA OF 20-
30 KT NE-E WINDS SURROUND THE GALE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 16N95W TO 13N96W TO 09N107W WITH 9-15 FT SEAS. EXPECT THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT.
EXPECT THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT ON MON NIGHT...
WITH LIGHT NOCTURNAL WINDS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI EVENING.
IN THE MEANTIME THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL TO MIX WITH WITH CROSS
EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...AND
DRIVE UP THE  COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS TO 7-11 FT ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N BETWEEN 95-115W BY THIS EVENING...THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM THE E THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
07N77W TO 05N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ
FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD BETWEEN 03-06N THROUGH AN
EMBEDDED TROUGH IN THE ITCZ AT 04N131W...WITH THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUING W TO BEYOND 02N140W. ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM 07N77W TO 03N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
180 NM OF LINE FROM 05N113W TO 06N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS FALLING APART ALONG A LINE FROM FROM 30N120W TO
23N140W WITH NW 15-20 KT CONDITIONS N OF 30N WITHIN 240 NM W OF
FRONT. LARGE NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH SE SWELL RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-15 FT NW OF LINE FROM 32N118W TO 20N140W. THE
TRADES ARE INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 05-17N
W OF 125W AND WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS
EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE NW
SWELL PROPAGATES SE AND MERGES WITH THE NE SWELL PROPAGATING SW
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT.
  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 20-30 KT DRAINAGE WINDS ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXTEND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 09N92W.
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MON MORNING. EXPECT 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON MON
AND TUE NIGHTS.
 
$$
NELSON