000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200301 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT DEC 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... STRONG GALES WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH HOWEVER AS THE COOL AND DRY MASS OF AIR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MODIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE SUNDAY. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM AROUND 17 UTC INDICATED SEAS TO 17 FT NEAR 12N96W...IN THE DOWNSTREAM PLUME OF STRONG GAP WINDS. SEAS TO 20 FT ARE LIKELY NEAR 14N96W...CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FLOW NEAR COAST BUT WITH A FAR ENOUGH FETCH OFFSHORE FOR SEAS TO BUILD FULLY. THE PERSISTENT AND STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE PUSHED AS FAR WEST AS 105W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT REACHING AS FAR WEST AS CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR 10N109W BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE PLUME OF SHORT PERIOD NE SEAS GENERATED FROM THE STRONG GAP WINDS IS MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL STILL PROPAGATING THROUGH THE AREA GENERALLY SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE MON/EARLY TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM 07N77W TO 06N85W TO 04N91W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 04N91W TO 07N120W TO 03N135W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ E OF 120W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY...SUPPORTING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ABOUT 210 NM NW OF GUADALUPE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER ENERGY LIFTS NE OF THE REGION. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS TO 9 FT COVERING THE AREA WEST OF 110W INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE MON. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SWELL WILL START TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH MID WEEK...JUST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS IMPACTING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST THROUGH WED. S OF 15N E OF 110W...BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLC WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GAPS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF FONSECA BY EARLY SUN MORNING. EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM OF BOTH GULFS TO NEAR 09N92W. IN ADDITION TO THE GAP WINDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACTIVE MAINLY OVERNIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...A RAPIDSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 19 UTC INDICATED A COUPLE OF AREAS OF 20 TO 25 KT JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ NEAR 07N135W...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE REGION FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 120W. THE TRADE WINDS FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 13 FT BY SUNDAY OVER THIS REGION DUE IN PART TO THE NE TRADE WINDS BUT ALSO INCLUDING A NEW ROUND OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL IN THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS ASSISTING DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ EAST OF 120W. LOOKING AHEAD...LITTLE CHANGE INTO MID WEEK WITH TRADES DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY BY LATE IN THE WEEK. $$ CHRISTENSEN