000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 09N87W TO ANOTHER
1008 MB LOW 07N100W TO 09N112W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N112W TO
10N123W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 93W AND 101W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN
82W AND 86W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH 18N130W TO 19N140W. A
LARGE  1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 37N136W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES ALONG
THE ITCZ HAS RESULTED IN A BROAD ZONE OF  20-25 KT TRADE WINDS
IN AN AREA FROM 08N TO 26N W OF 130W AND FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN
120W AND 130W...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 10 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL.
ANOTHER ZONE OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT KT WINDS IS N OF THE FRONTAL
REMNANT N OF 24N BETWEEN 118W AND 127W...WITH SEAS FROM 12 TO 15
FT IN NW SWELL. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WHILE THE LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
N OF THE AREA. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY WED NIGHT AS A TROUGH SETS IN ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEVADA.
THIS WILL SUPPORT NW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING THROUGHOUT MOSTLY THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO REACH 8 FT BY THU OVER THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA.  

A WEAKENING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE BERING SEA IS NOW
GENERATING A ROUND OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SWELLS OF 20-22
SECONDS WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM NW BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
20N130W WED AFTERNOON AND FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 10N125W BY THU AFTERNOON. MARINE INTERESTS ALONG
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
FOR THESE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND ONGOING DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS.   

$$
COBB