000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 06N97W
TO 11N105W TO 08N114W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N115W TO 08N126W
TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO
08N E OF 91W AND FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NEARBY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FROM 03N TO 10N
BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR PENINSULA AND NORTH PACIFIC WATERS...EXTENDING
FROM NEAR 24N110W TO 20N124W TO 20N133W. A 1036 MB HIGH NORTH OF
THE AREA NEAR 37N137W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...DRIVING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD. A BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS REMAINS MAINLY WEST OF
THE FRONT FROM 11N TO 26N W OF 125W...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 10 TO
12 FT IN NE SWELL. ANOTHER ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS IS N OF THE
FRONT N OF 24N BETWEEN 114W AND 128W...WITH SEAS FROM 12 TO 16
FT IN NW SWELL. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH BY WED MORNING WHILE THE LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU MORNING AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES
LATE TODAY. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY WED NIGHT AS A TROUGH SETS IN ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEVADA.
THIS WILL SUPPORT NW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING THROUGHOUT MOSTLY THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 8 FT.

A LARGE DEEP EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE BERING SEA IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE A ROUND OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS AT OVER 20 SECONDS. THESE SWELLS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY TUE AND SPREAD SE TUE NIGHT AND
WED...REACHING FROM NW BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 14N140W WED MORNING.
MARINE INTERESTS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY
ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THESE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS AND ONGOING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.   

$$
NR