000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC MON DEC 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 08.5N92W TO
09N99W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 14N105W TO 10N119W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 10N119W TO 05N130W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 02NTO 08N E OF 85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120NM S
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM 28N114W TO
25N125W TO 29N140W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1038 MB IS CENTERED
N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N139W. ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B PASSES FROM 1736
AND 1830 UTC SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS N OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WERE IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING
INTO AN EXISTING AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES FROM 07N TO 25N W OF
130W AND FROM 11N TO 22N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W WHICH WERE A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. THESE
TRADES GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN A MIX OF NW
AND NE SWELL. THE LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL N OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID-DAY WED. 
 
LARGE NW SWELL FROM THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT IS SUBSIDING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL...WITH PERIODS
IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE AND 5-8 FT SEAS HAS REACHED THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.

A LARGE DEEP EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE BERING SEA IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE  ANOTHER ROUND OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF
OVER 20 SECONDS. THESE SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY TUE AND SPREAD SE TUE NIGHT AND WED...EXTENDING FROM NW
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 20N130W. MARINE INTERESTS ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD BE ALERT TO
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF ON WED.   

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA  HAS INCREASED WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE N OF 29N
PER A 1654 UTC ASCAT B PASS. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME S PORTION
OF THE GULF.

$$
COBB