000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141511
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC MON DEC 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 08.5N92W TO 09N98W
TO11N102W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 13N105W TO 10N115W 10N119W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N122W TO 05N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 02N TO 08.5N
E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM 30N115W TO
26N127W TO 30N139W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1038 MB IS CENTERED
N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WERE NOTED N
OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ
AND W OF 120W WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN A MIX OF NW AND NE SWELL.
THE LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS AS STRING HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL N OF
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. BY WED MORNING THE
WEAKENING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 22N105W TO 16N121WTO
15N129W. 
 
LARGE NW SWELL FROM THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT IS SUBSIDING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL...WITH PERIODS
IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE AND 4-6 FT SEAS...WILL REACH THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE INTERESTS ALONG THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION. THE NEW FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE AREA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12-
17 FT W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO NEAR 125W BY THIS EVENING. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA HAS
INCREASED WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE N OF 29N. THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUE
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME S PORTION OF THE GULF.

$$
AL