000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141012
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC MON DEC 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N92W TO 09N102W...THEN
CONTINUES FROM 14N104W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 08N122W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07N126W TO 04N132W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02N TO 08.5N E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND
104W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 118W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1037 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
40N141W. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF
THIS HIGH AND ALONG MUCH OF THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE
WEST COAST WERE DRIVING A NEW COLD FRONT INTO N PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...FROM 30N119W TO 28N127W TO 30N139W. WINDS OF
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN A NEW PULSE OF NW SWELL WERE
FOUND N OF THIS FRONT. THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS DISSIPATED...BUT
MOVED WELL SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH ITS REMNANTS FROM JUST S
OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO TO ALONG ABOUT 13N ACROSS THE TROPICS
FROM 125-130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH AND THE REMNANTS OF THIS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS OVER
WATERS W OF 120W ACCORDING TO RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE SE BEHIND THE NEW COLD
FRONT. THIS NEW COLD FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN A LARGE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS...EXCEPT NW TO N WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE E OF 124W...AS IT MOVES TO 28N110W TO 25N114W TO
22N126W TO 23N136W TO 25N140W THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE
WINDS...ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT...WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON TUE
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO 26N109W TO 21N111W TO 17N123W TO
19N140W BY TUE EVENING.

LARGE NW SWELL FROM THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT IS SUBSIDING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL...WITH PERIODS
IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE AND 4-6 FT SEAS...WILL REACH THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS MON. THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 11-14 FT ARE CONFINED
FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 105W TO BEYOND 140W. MARINE INTERESTS
ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. THE NEW FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE AREA AND NW WINDS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12-17 FT BETWEEN GUADELOUPE ISLAND
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THIS EVENING. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LAST GASP OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY DISSIPATED S OF
CABO CORRIENTES CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS S OF 25N TO ABOUT 19N. A RECENT
ALTIMETER MEASURED SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ACROSS THIS AREA FROM JUST SE
OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. WINDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNRISE...WITH WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE N OF 29N AND SEAS BUILDING
TO 8 FT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD
PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
MON...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME S PORTIONS
OF THE GULF.

$$
STRIPLING