000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC MON DEC 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N86W TO 07N92W TO
09N102W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 10N114W TO 08N124W TO 02N134W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN
79W-91W AND ELSEWHERE FROM 05N-09.5N BETWEEN 88W-101W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 114W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1037 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED NW OF
THE AREA NEAR 39N141W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS TO THE S IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION OF THE ITCZ IS DRIVING A LARGE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS OVER WATERS W OF 120W ACCORDING
TO RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BUILD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TO THE SE BEHIND A NEW COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
FAR N WATERS FROM 32N123W TO 31N128W TO 32N138W. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO USHER IN A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE
WINDS...EXCEPT NW TO N WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE E OF 124W...AS
IT MOVES TO 28N110W TO 25N114W TO 22N126W TO 23N136W TO 25N140W
THROUGH MON EVENING. THESE WINDS...ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT...WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON TUE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO
26N109W TO 21N111W TO 17N123W TO 19N140W BY EVENING.

LARGE NW SWELL FROM A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT IS SUBSIDING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN
THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE AND 4-6 FT SEAS...WILL REACH THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS MON. THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 11-14 FT ARE CONFINED
FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 113W AND 121W. MARINE INTERESTS ALONG
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION. THE NEW FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
SWELL TO THE AREA AND NW WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 12-17 FT BETWEEN GUADELOUPE ISLAND AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE BY MON EVENING. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LAST GAPS OF FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY DISSIPATED S OF THE
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA CAN BE FOUND OVER THE GULF AND
PACIFIC WATERS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 108.5W AND 111W.
WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNRISE
MON...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE N OF 29N
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES COULD BE ABOVE GALE FORCE. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
OVER THE GULF ON MON...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT.

$$
SCHAUER