000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC SUN DEC 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0045 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO 07N93W TO 13N110W
TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N112W 1010 MB TO 08N117W TO 05N130W. THE
ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 103W-106W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
N OF THE AXIS TO A LINE FROM 07N96W TO 20N105W TO LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 12N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 60 NM
AND 270 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-130W AS
WELL AS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 130W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED CENTERED NEAR 31N138W WHILE A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
FROM 25N108W TO 20N114W TO 17N130W THEN DISSIPATING TO 17N140W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS PRIMARILY FROM 12N-23N W OF 120W. VERY
LARGE NW SWELL IS PRODUCE SEAS TO 18 FT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS. MARINE INTERESTS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY ISLANDS...SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-
20 SECONDS RANGE...SHOULD CURRENTLY BE PASSING CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO AND SHOULD REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS MON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUN AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. A NEW COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE N WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS FRONT
WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND TO 20-25 KT WINDS OVER N WATERS AS
WELL AS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IT WILL ALSO BRING A NEW
ROUND OF NW SWELL...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE 12-17
FT RANGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE
MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND EXPAND THE AREA OF TRADE
WINDS S OF THE FRONT ON MON. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
BREEZE IN THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND LOOSENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF ON MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS.

$$
SCHAUER