000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112144
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC FRI DEC 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2045 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W TO 04N80W TO 04N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH E OF 90W.
THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N104W TO 11N113W...THEN
CONTINUES FROM 07N121W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 104W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A WEAKENING UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT OFF WEST
OF CLARION ISLAND NEAR 19N120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE
EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ON THE E SIDE
OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS
ANALYZED NEAR 12N115.5W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1008 MB.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM NE AND E
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THIS LOW
WILL MOVE N-NE TOWARD MANZANILLO MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...BUT WEAKEN. ASCAT PASSES FROM AROUND 1700-1800 UTC
INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 150 NM IN THE N AND NE QUADRANTS OF
THE SURFACE LOW. LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS ARE MIXING WITH
COMPONENTS OF LONGER PERIOD NW AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SW SWELL.
FARTHER NORTH...STRONG WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SAT BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE INTO SUN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. LONGER PERIOD NW
SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THIS NEW BATCH OF SWELL IS
REACHING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 12-18 FT. INTERESTS PRIMARILY ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD BE ADVISED OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS SURF AS THE SWELL REACHES THE SHORE. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECONDS
RANGE...WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA EARLY SAT AND CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO BY SAT EVENING.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WILL INDUCE A STRONG ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO ALLOW
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY SAT.
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE SAT AS THE
DRIVING HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE INTO THE ATLC. FARTHER WEST...LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 06N97W WAS ANALYZED AT 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM E QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS
LOW CURRENTLY LIES IN AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE...BUT IT
WILL BE ENCOUNTERING STRENGTHENING NE FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE THE LOW. 

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING ALONG 30N TO 35N
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE BUILDING HIGH PRES IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 08N TO 20N W
OF 125W. THE AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN
AREAL EXTENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NW SWELL COVERING THE
REGION WILL BE REINFORCED WITH THE NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 12-18 FT REMAINING
N OF 20N.

$$
CHRISTENSEN/SCHAUER