000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111826 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI DEC 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT IDENTIFIABLE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N95W TO 07N105W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N116W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 130W. A TROUGH IS ALONG 05N E OF 85W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF IT. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT OFF WEST OF CLARION ISLAND NEAR 18N120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ON THE E SIDE OF THE LOW IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N116W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNE TOWARD MANZANILLO MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WEAKEN. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW. LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS ARE MIXING WITH COMPONENTS OF LONGER PERIOD NW AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SW SWELL. FARTHER NORTH...STRONG WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SAT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE INTO SUN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH SAT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THIS NEW BATCH OF SWELL WILL REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TODAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 12-18 FT. INTERESTS PRIMARILY ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD BE ADVISED OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS SURF AS THE SWELL REACHES THE SHORE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECONDS RANGE...WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY SAT AND CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO BY SAT EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH EARLY MON FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. S OF 15N E OF 110W...HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MAY STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING. THIS PATTERN COULD REPEAT TONIGHT...AS GFS SHOWS STRONG 30 METER WINDS POSSIBLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FARTHER WEST...AN AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL IS NOTED ON VARIOUS ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA WEST OF 90W. THIS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT BELOW 8 FT. ADDITIONAL NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA SUN AND MON. LOOKING AHEAD...A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT WILL MOVE INTO AREA WEST OF 95W THROUGH MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING ALONG 30N TO 35N BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS WATERS N OF 25N OVERNIGHT. THE BUILDING HIGH PRES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 15N W OF 135W THAT WILL EXPAND IN AREAL EXTENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NW SWELL COVERING THE REGION WILL BE REINFORCED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 12-18 FT REMAINING N OF 20N. $$ CHRISTENSEN