000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111602 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT IDENTIFIABLE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
10N85W TO 06N95W TO 07N105W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N105W
TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N116W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180
NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 130W. 

A TROUGH IS ALONG 05N E OF 85W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF IT.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT OFF WEST OF
CLARION ISLAND NEAR 18N120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ON THE E SIDE OF THE
LOW IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N116W
WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNE TOWARD MANZANILLO MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WEAKEN. AN ASCAT PASS FROM
05 UTC INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE
LOW. LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS ARE MIXING WITH COMPONENTS OF LONGER
PERIOD NW AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SW SWELL. FARTHER
NORTH...STRONG WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SAT BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FRI INTO SAT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
THIS NEW BATCH OF SWELL WILL REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE TODAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 12-18 FT. INTERESTS
PRIMARILY ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY ISLANDS
SHOULD BE ADVISED OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS SURF AS THE
SWELL REACHES THE SHORE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL...WITH
PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECONDS RANGE...WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY SAT AND CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO BY SAT EVENING. 

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 30N140W TO
24N125W TO NEAR 19N115W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IS NOTED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE ITCZ FROM 08N-20N W OF 133W PER THE 0610 UTC ASCAT PASS...A
SHIP OBSERVATION FROM A SHIP NEAR 15N140W AT 0630 UTC. THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND N TO NEAR 24N TONIGHT AS A BROAD
AREA OF NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NW SWELL COVERING THE REGION WILL BE
REINFORCED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 12-18 FT REMAINING
N OF 20N.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE SW AND S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH TO THE SW OF THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT COUPLED WITH NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 87W-88W PRIMARILY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY AND ON SAT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AS DESCRIBED EARLIER IN THE THE
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE PRIMARILY FROM
THE NW. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND QUICKLY SPREAD AS
FAR S AS 27N OVERNIGHT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES
MAY BE CLOSE TO GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE FROM N TO S BY SAT AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS.

$$
AGUIRRE/CHRISTENSEN