000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110338 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI DEC 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 06N93W TO 06N105W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N105W TO 08N122W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS TO 03N BETWEEN 89W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 240 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 129W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT OFF WEST OF CLARION ISLAND NEAR 19N120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET ON THE E SIDE OF THE LOW IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 13N112W TO 08N118W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AND 210 NM SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 09N-13N. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH BECOMING A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN 150 NM N QUADRANT FRI. SEAS WILL BE 8-10 FT HERE IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND DIMINISH THE WINDS. A COLD FRONT...ANALYZED FROM 30N131W TO 27N140W...WILL MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY FRI. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SAT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FRI INTO SAT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...ADDING TO EXISTING NW SWELL STILL RESPONSIBLE FOR SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND. THE NEW ROUND OF SWELL WILL REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FRI...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 12-18 FT. INTERESTS PRIMARILY ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY ISLAND SHOULD BE ADVISED OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS SURF AS THE SWELL REACHES THE SHORE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECONDS RANGE...WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY SAT AND CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO BY SAT EVENING. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN AREA FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WAS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ FROM 07N-11N W OF 135W ACCORDING TO EARLIER ASCAT PASSES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND N TO 21N OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEW HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NW SWELL COVERING THE REGION WILL BE REINFORCED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 12-18 FT REMAINING NORTH OF 20N. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SW AND S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH TO THE SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT COUPLED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FRESH TO STRONG E-NE BREEZE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 87W-88W PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI AND SAT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AS MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION SESSION ABOVE...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE PRIMARILY FROM THE NW. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE FRONT FRI EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD AS FAR S AS 27N OVERNIGHT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY BE CLOSE TO GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE FROM N TO S BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. $$ SCHAUER