000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101550 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU DEC 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... TROUGH FROM 05N77W TO 03N81W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 07N E OF 82W. TROUGH FROM 08N85W TO 06N93W TO 06N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH. ITCZ FROM 06N100W TO 07N110W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 125W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N W OF 120W...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT OFF WEST OF CLARION ISLAND NEAR 18N120W. THIS IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS CURRENTLY...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG 115W LATER TODAY BETWEEN 15N AND 20N. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS DEEPENING INTO A WEAK LOW PRES THROUGH FRI...SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AROUND 150 NM SOUTH OF CLARION ISLAND BY EARLY FRI WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY FRI...THEN WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FRI INTO SAT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...ADDING TO EXISTING NW SWELL STILL RESPONSIBLE FOR SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND. THE NEW ROUND OF SWELL WILL REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE FRI...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 12 TO 17 FT. INTERESTS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST AND GUADALUPE ISLAND SHOULD BE ADVISED OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS SURF AS THE SWELL REACHES THE SHORE. THE SWELL WILL REACH AS FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AS 100W BY LATE SAT. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH MON...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW WINDS AND ACCOMPANYING SEAS WILL IMPACT THE AREA OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE MON INTO TUE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN ASCAT PASS FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT GAP WINDS...BUT THIS HAS LIKELY DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NEXT GAP EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. S OF 15N E OF 110W...FRESH GAP WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS LIKELY SINCE DIMINISHED. EXPECT BRIEF PULSES OF FRESH GAP WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. FARTHER WEST...A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 TO 11 FT BETWEEN WEST OF 95W IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8FT THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WEAKENING THIS MORNING AHEAD A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN AREA FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT WERE EARLIER NOTICED FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT. NW SWELL COVERING THE REGION WILL BE REINFORCED WITH A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT REMAINING NORTH OF 20N. LOOKING AHEAD...THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BELOW 8 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 FT OVER THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 125W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST. $$ CHRISTENSEN