000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091004 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED DEC 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE GALE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN GALE-FORCE IN ABOUT THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT N TO NE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...UNTIL THURSDAY AROUND NOONTIME. THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS EVENT IS STILL GENERATING A LONG PLUME OF 10 TO 12 FT SEAS WESTWARD TO 105W AS IT MIXES WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AFTER NOON ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT LIKELY TO OCCUR WILL BE ARRIVING SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND MAY AGAIN REACH GALE FORCE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 09N87W TO 05N96W TO 06N101W. ITCZ FROM 06N101W TO 06N116W TO 04N124W TO 06N136W TO 06N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG S OF 08N E OF 87W...AND S OF 12N W OF 114W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG PERIOD...15-20 SECOND...NW SWELL COVERS OUR ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SWELL IS INTERACTING WITH STRONG NE TRADEWINDS TO COMBINE TO PRODUCE 12 TO 14 FT WAVE HEIGHTS IN A LARGE AREA SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IT IS OF NOTE THAT A 08/2000 UTC ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED WAVE HEIGHTS 1 TO 2 FT HIGHER THAN ANALYZED BY THE WAVEWATCH-III MODEL. AS THE TRADEWINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A FRESH BREEZE BY EARLY THURSDAY AND THE SWELL FIELD GRADUALLY DAMPEN...NEARLY ALL OF OUR AREA WILL BE LESS THAN 12 FT WAVE HEIGHTS AT THAT TIME. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE AFFECTING THE WEATHER ALONG OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BE A QUITE VIGOROUS TROUGH...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD FADE AS IT REACHES 25N OVER THE PACIFIC BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LARGE RAIN PRODUCER FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...A LARGE NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO OUR NW CORNER TONIGHT. THESE WILL CAUSE 12 TO 16 FT SWELL OVER THE NW CORNER BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE NW SWELL MAY REACH AROUND 18 FT ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA ARE SHOWING THESE WIND SPEEDS FROM 10N TO 12N FROM 88W EASTWARD. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE LESS THAN 8 FEET. EXPECT A PULSE OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 KT FROM SUNSET WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...BETWEEN SUNRISE AND THE NOONTIME HOURS. EXPECT A PULSE OF NORTHEAST 20 KNOT WINDS FROM THE PRE- DAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY UNTIL JUST BEFORE NOON ON FRIDAY. A WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED BIT OF NORTHEAST 20 KNOT WINDS OCCURS AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. THE SEA HEIGHTS DO NOT REACH 8 FEET DURING FROM WEDNESDAY UNTIL SATURDAY. THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOME 20 KNOT WINDS APPEAR IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF BETWEEN ON FRIDAY BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOONTIME. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS APPEAR AROUND SUNSET ON FRIDAY...STILL IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF. THE WIND SPEEDS GO DOWN AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY...AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. $$ MT