000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC WED DEC 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS WEAKENING.  A RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS AROUND 21 UTC SHOWED PEAK WINDS OF 30 KT.  THE GALE WARNING
IS BEING CONTINUED THROUGH 06 UTC...BUT IT MAY BE JUST BELOW THE
35 KT THRESHOLD ALREADY.  THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS EVENT IS STILL
GENERATING A LONG PLUME OF 10 TO 12 FT SEAS WESTWARD TO 105W AS
IT MIXES WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
FURTHER RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE
LATER THIS MORNING...THEN DOWN TO 20 KT BY THURSDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 06N102W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
06N102W TO 05N120W TO 08N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS FROM 115W TO 125W AND W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONG PERIOD...15-20 SECOND...NW SWELL COVERS OUR ENTIRE
AREA...EXCEPT IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  THIS SWELL
IS INTERACTING WITH STRONG BREEZE NE TRADEWINDS TO COMBINE TO
PRODUCE 12 TO 14 FT WAVE HEIGHTS IN A LARGE AREA SOUTHWEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.  IT IS OF NOTE THAT A 20 UTC ALTIMETER PASS
SHOWED WAVE HEIGHTS 1 TO 2 FT HIGHER THAN ANALYZED BY THE
WAVEWATCH-III MODEL. AS THE TRADEWINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A
FRESH BREEZE BY EARLY THURSDAY AND THE SWELL FIELD GRADUALLY
DAMPEN...NEARLY ALL OF OUR AREA WILL BE LESS THAN 12 FT WAVE
HEIGHTS AT THAT TIME.  

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE AFFECTING THE
WEATHER ALONG OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL BE A QUITE VIGOROUS TROUGH...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR NORTHERN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE FRONT SHOULD FADE AS IT
REACHES 25N OVER THE PACIFIC BY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A LARGE RAIN PRODUCER FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER...A LARGE NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE TO OUR NW CORNER TONIGHT. THESE WILL CAUSE 12 TO 16 FT
SWELL OVER THE NW CORNER BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE LARGE NW SWELL
MAY REACH AROUND 18 FT ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. 

IN ADDITION TO THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT...A WEAKER GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT IS ALSO CURRENTLY OCCURRING.  NE WINDS OF 20-
25 KT WILL OCCUR LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH OR NOR
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE 8 FT OR GREATER SEAS IN THE GULF.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT LIKELY TO OCCUR
WILL BE ARRIVING SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND MAY AGAIN REACH GALE FORCE.

NO SIGNIFICANT GULF OF CALIFORNIA WIND EVENTS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FRESH
BREEZE TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE GULF.  

$$ 
LANDSEA