000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071605 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON DEC 07 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1545 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...PERSISTENT N TO NE 30-40 KT
WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 13-18 FT IN THE GULF ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE AS THE CULPRIT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SLACKENS THROUGH
EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE
FORCE AT THAT TIME WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO THE RANGE OF 10-15 FT.
THESE WINDS WILL LAST INTO WED WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 9-11 FT.
RESIDUAL MIXED SWELL FROM THIS LONG DURATION EVENT RESULTING IN
MIXED SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL BE CONFINED TO WITHIN AN ELSEWHERE
AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 6N95W TO 07N94W TO 03.4S100W TO
04N117W TO 12N105W TO 16N95W BY EARLY WED MORNING. BY WED
NIGHT...THE N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF WILL BE ABOUT 25 KT
WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 8 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 06N101W TO 06N110W TO
05N115W TO 05N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ANALYZED
NEAR 30N134W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO WELL W OF THE AREA TO
NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A PAIR OF WEAK PERTUBATIONS IN THE
DEEP TROPICS ARE ANALYZED AS TWO TROUGHS...THE FIRST ALONG 
137W/138W FROM 03N-08N...AND THE SECOND ALONG 127W FROM 03N-08N
MOVING ABOUT 15 KT. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE AREA OF THE TROUGHS AND THE TROPICS W OF 100W
IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE BETWEEN 06N131W
TO 06N137W...AND WITHIN 60 NM W OF LINE FROM 06N137W TO 06N140W.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP FROM THE FAR WESTERN TROUGH TODAY OR TONIGHT AND
APPROACH OR CROSS 140W ON TUE.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PRODUCING
SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 14-16 FT BEGINS TO THE NW OF A LINE THAT
STRETCHES FROM 32N125W TO BEYOND 18N140W. THE PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH ALONG 137W/138W AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO ITS N IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS
FROM 08N-19N W OF 128W...AND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 123W-128W WITH
SEAS OF 9-11 FT. AS THE TROUGH OR LOW MENTIONED ABOVE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA MOVES WESTWARD DURING THEN NEXT
24-48 HOURS...THE CULPRIT GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ALLOWING FOR THE
THE TRADES TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 8-10 FT
W OF A LINE FROM 20N117W TO 12N108W TO 04N117W TO 03.4S100W OT
03.4S120W TO 00N120W AT THAT TIME.
 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH GULF WILL
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE STARTING UP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THESE WINDS THEN
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...AND PULSE BACK TO 20-25 KT
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH NW WINDS FROM 23N TO 27N ARE
FORECAST ONLY FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN AND
TROUGHING JUST INLAND NW MEXICO RELAXES. 

$$
AGUIRRE