000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON DEC 07 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...30-40 KT GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...SEAS TO 18 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET
ON MON THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE TUE MORNING. A 30 KT MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED
THE REMAINDER OF TUE THROUGH SUNRISE ON WED. ONLY 25 KT EXPECTED
DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 20 KT ON THU
NIGHT.  
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 09N745W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WSW ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
FROM 06N77W TO 05N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05.5N77W TO 05N87W
TO 06N96W.

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 05N90W AND
EXTENDS W TO 05N125W...THEN TURNS SLIGHTLY SW TO AN EMBEDDED
1007 MB LOW AT 03N139.5W. A TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW AT
03N139.5W TO 10N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM OF 07N90W...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 116W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 28N132W. THE LEADING EDGE
OF A BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...IN THE FORM OF 12-18 FT
SEAS...IS ALONG POSITION FROM 32N127W TO 22N140W. NE 20-25 KT
TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 07-17N TO THE W OF 123W
WITH SEAS OF 9-12 FT. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL IS
MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL....RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS
OF 7-11 FT ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 13N105W TO THE
EQUATOR NEAR 105W. THE LEADING EDGE OF 12 FT SEAS OR GREATER
WILL REACH FROM 32N120W TO 07N140W EARLY MON...THEN REACH THE
FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE MON
WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 14 FT. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM THE
N ON TUE...BUT 6-9 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG BAJA N OF 24N AND 5-8
FT SEAS TO THE S OF 24N TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT 30N140W ON WED NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER
BATCH OF LARGE NW SWELL. FORECAST SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER TO
ARRIVE AT THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AT SUNRISE FRI ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG NW WINDS ALONG BAJA AND STRONG TRADES DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT.       
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT STRONG NE 20-25 KT WINDS...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT WELL DOWNSTREAM...TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING FRESH NE WINDS MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN EARLY
MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WITH NE 20-25 KT WINDS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT ON WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHTS. 
   
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS N OF 27N AND STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF 27N
THROUGH MON MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT
INTO THU. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY FRI
WITH STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AND
SPREADING SE ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF BY LATE SAT.  

$$
NELSON