000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061605 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN DEC 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...N TO NE 30-45 KT GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 16-18 FT RANGE CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF SUPPORTED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ANALYZED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO PER THE 12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AN OBSERVATION FROM SHIP WITH CALL LETTER ID "WLMQ'. AT 1245 UTC THIS SHIP REPORTED NE 45 KT WINDS ALONG WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 19 FT AT LOCATION 13N96W. BOTH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING AT WHICH TIME THE WINDS WILL BE AT MINIMAL GALE THRESHOLD THROUGH THE GULF. N TO NE 20-30 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9-13 FT ARE FORECAST AT THAT TIME TO EXIST ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 10N98W. SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN MIXED SWELL ARE EXPECTED IN 48 HOURS TO BE OVER REMAINDER OF THE AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 08N92W TO 03.4S107W TO 13N107W TO 16N95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N89W TO 05N98W TO 03N109W TO 04N120W TO 04N132W. MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N138W TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 02N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W-126W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W- 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS W OF 138W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXETNDS FROM NW COLOMBIA SW TO NEAR 05N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... THE 12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N132W TO W OF THE AREA AT 26N140W. A A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO 30N137W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO W OF THE AREA AT 29N140W. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING SOME THROUGH TUE WHILE THE COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE N AND DISSIPATES. THE LEADING EDGE OF 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE ALONG THE LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO THE TROPICS NEAR 07N140W AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL....WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 5-8 FT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON SUN WITH 4-6 FT CONDITIONS FORECAST ALONG THE ENTIRE PENINSULA ON SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THEN WILL BUILD RAPIDLY AS THE NEXT BATCH OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NW SWELL ARRIVES LATER ON MON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE THIS WEEK WITH STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF BAJA ON THU NIGHT AND SPREADING S TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA ON FRI. OTHER GAP WINDS... THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PRESENT NE 20-25 KT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL THEN RETURN EARLY ON MON WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT...AND DIMINISH AGAIN BY EARLY MON EVENING BEFORE PULSING AT 20-25 KT EARLY TUE AND INTO THU. THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM 23N -28N WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5-6 FT. NW-NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE CONFINED JUST SE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 108W-109.5W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN AND THE TYPICAL THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE NW COAST OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MON ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 4-5 FT. $$ AGUIRRE