000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN DEC 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...30-40 KT GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...SEAS TO 18 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
ON SUN THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME WITH MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH MON EVENING. A 30 KT MAXIMUM IS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF MON NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON WED. ONLY
25 KT EXPECTED DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 15
KT ON THU NIGHT.  
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 08N74W WITH
A SURFACE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC FROM 04.5N77W TO
03N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED TO THE W 
OF 80W WITHIN 30 NM N AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH. 

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 03N91W AND 
CONTINUES W TO 03N107W...THEN TURNS NW TO 05.5N123W..THEN SW
THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1007 MB LOW PRES AT 03.5N138W WITH THE ITCZ 
CONTINUING W TO BEYOND 03N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF 05N93W AND 09N105W AND
12.5N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER 
AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
06N109W TO 05N116W THEN WIDES TO WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE FROM 05N116W TO 07N125W TO 03N140W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N140W...BUT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA TO THE N OF 29.5N TONIGHT AND SUN. 

A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 29N127W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 25N140W. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE NW OF
THE RIDGE CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 32N AND
THE FRONT WILL LOSE IDENTITY S OF 32N ON SUN. THE MAIN CONCERN
IS THE ACCOMPANYING BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...IN THE FORM
OF 12-18 FT SEAS...THAT WILL ARRIVE AT 30N140W TONIGHT...WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF 12 FT SEAS OR GREATER REACHING A POSITION
FROM 32N126W TO 22N140W LATE SUN...AND FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA TO THE TROPICS NEAR 08N135W ON MON AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL IS MIXING WITH
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL....WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 5-8 FT ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON SUN
WITH 4-6 FT CONDITIONS FORECAST ALONG THE ENTIRE PENINSULA ON
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THEN WILL RAPIDLY BUILD AS THE NEXT
BATCH OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NW SWELL ARRIVES LATER ON MON.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE THIS WEEK WITH
STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF BAJA ON THU
NIGHT AND SPREADING S TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA ON FRI.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG NE 20-25 KT WINDS WILL QUICKLY RESUME
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT WELL DOWNSTREAM...AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT
AGAIN EARLY SUN NIGHT...MON NIGHT AND ON TUE NIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT ON WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHTS. 
   
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE S OF
28.5N...AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
20 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 6 FT IN LONG OPEN FETCH
WATERS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG NW WINDS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON THU NIGHT.  

$$
NELSON