000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041004 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI DEC 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...WITHIN A NARROW SWATH THAT IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE TODAY ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND SUPPORT STRONG GALE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE LATE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AGAIN WITH STRONG GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WAVE GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 25 FT NEAR 14.5N95W DURING THE STORM EVENTS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 06N86W TO 03N92W. ITCZ FROM 03N92W TO 05N107W TO 03N129W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 135W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT FROM 30N123W TO 26N131W. WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 26N131W TO 24N140W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AT 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO THE S OF 32N. REMNANTS OF THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY FRI WITH ONLY THE SLIGHEST W TO NW WIND SHIFT. A SECONDARY FRONT IS NOTED ABOUT 150 NM BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT...BUT WILL NOT BE ADDED TO THE SURFACE ANALYSIS OR MARINE GRAPHICS FOR SIMPLICITY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE ASSOCIATED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WHICH HAS BUILT COMBINED SEAS TO 17 FT ALONG 32N BETWEEN 133-140W WITH SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER CURRENTLY W OF A LINE FROM 32N125W TO 22N140W. EXPECT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER TO SHIFT E AND SE AND MERGE WITH TRADE WIND SEAS ACROSS THE TROPICS ON FRI...ALL TO THE W OF A LINE FROM 32N118W TO 06N134W. LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SOME WITH A MAX OF ABOUT 10 FT REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 28N LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT. EXPECT COMBINED SEAS OF AT LEAST 6-8 FT TO CONTINUE ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MIDDAY SUN THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR 30N140W ON SAT NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS THAT WILL ARRIVE AT THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE MON. FURTHER S...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRONG NE TRADE WINDS...ROUGHLY ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 08-16N W OF 132W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9-12 FT. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL...AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ARE MIXING WITH FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO EQUATOR AT 97W RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL EXPAND TO COVER THE WATERS FROM 06-19N W OF 130W ON FRI...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN WITH STRONG TRADES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 122W ON SUN. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT STRONG NE 20-25 KT WINDS TO DEVELOP TODAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...RELAX SOME ON FRI AFTERNOON... AND THEN RESUME AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NE SWELL FROM THESE SURGES WILL SPREAD SW AND MERGE WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...AS WELL AS NW SWELL PARTIALLY ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...RESULTING IN LARGE SEAS TO AS FAR S AS 08N93W. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AT 20-25 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE N BEGINNING LATE SUN. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 7 FT IN LONG OPEN FETCH WATERS. $$ MT