000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030327 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU DEC 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...NORTHERLY SURGES CURRENTLY AT 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THU WITH 35-40 KT CONDITIONS AS FAR AS 180 NM SSW OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THU EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A NARROW SWATH OF MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING THU NIGHT SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME WITH STRONG GALE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE ON TUE. WAVE GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 25 FT NEAR 14.5N95W ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A 1006 MB SURFACE IS ANALYZED OVER COLOMBIA AT 10N74W WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SW OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL EPAC. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N81W TO 03N88W. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N84W TO 05N90W...THEN TURNS W TO 05N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS WNW TO 09N119W...THEN TURNS SW THROUGH THE BASE OF AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N135W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 04N106W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF 05N118W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS N-S FROM 07N135W TO 11N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE W OF 97W WITHIN 270 NM OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N130W AND A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N138W TO 30N140.5W. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 20-30 KT ACROSS THE NW DISCUSSION WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WNW 20-30 KT WINDS OBSERVED W OF THE FRONT. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN BAJA LATE FRI...WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE EPAC WATERS S OF 32N ON THU. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY POST-FRONTAL LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SEAS HEIGHTS UP TO 18 FT ALONG 32N BETWEEN 135-140W ON EARLY THU WITH SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER FORECAST W OF A LINE FROM 32N125W TO 11N138W LATE THU...AND W OF A LINE FROM 32N119W TO 07N133W LATE FRI. THESE SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO ABOUT 11 FT AS THEY REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE FRI NIGHT. FURTHER S...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRONG NE TRADE WINDS...ROUGHLY ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 10-17N W OF 135W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9-11 FT. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE MIXING WITH FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO EQUATOR AT 100W RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL INCREASE SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A STRONG GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THU EVENING. $$ NELSON