000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022145 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED DEC 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...NORTHERLY SURGES AT 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THU WITH 35-40 KT CONDITIONS AS FAR AS 180 NM SSW OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THU EVENING...AND 35-45 KT CONDITIONS AS FAR AS 240 NM SSW OF THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRI. THESE STRONG GALE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE WED. GUIDANCE HAS NOT HINTED AT STORM CONDITIONS...BUT THE DURATION OF 45 KT WINDS MAY LEAD TO AN UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A 1007 MB SURFACE IS ANALYZED OVER COLOMBIA AT 06N76W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING W OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC TO NEAR 04N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 04N87W. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N84W TO 05N90W...THEN TURNS W TO 06N94W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS WNW TO 06N116W...THEN SW TO 03N124W...THEN NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 08N135W...THEN EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 210 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110-120W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS N-S FROM 07N135W TO 12N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED TO THE S OF 10N WITHIN 270 NM E AND WITHIN 180 NM W OF TROUGH AXIS. LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE W OF 97W WITHIN 240 NM OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N127W AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT ACROSS THE NW DISCUSSION WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REACH 30N140W THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN BAJA LATE FRI... AND ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 32N ON THU...THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY POST-FRONTAL LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SEAS HEIGHTS UP TO 18 FT ALONG 32N BETWEEN 130-140W ON THU WITH SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER FORECAST W OF A LINE FROM 32N127W 25N140W ON THU...AND W OF A LINE FROM 32N119W TO 10N140W ON FRI. THESE SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO ABOUT 11 FT AS THEY REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON ON SAT. FURTHER S...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRONG NE TRADE WINDS...ROUGHLY ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 10-17N W OF 130W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9-11 FT. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE MIXING WITH FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO EQUATOR AT 100W RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL INCREASE SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A STRONG GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THU EVENING. $$ NELSON