000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED DEC 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...NORTHERLY SURGES AT 20-25 KT
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WED...THEN INCREASING TO 20-30 KT
EARLY WED NIGHT...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
LATE WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THU WITH 35-40 KT CONDITIONS AS FAR AS 180
NM SSW OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THU EVENING...AND 35-45 KT CONDITIONS
AS FAR AS 240 NM SSW OF THE GULF AT SUNRISE ON FRI. THESE 
STRONG GALE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.    
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM
OF 03N84W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THE ITCZ AXIS FORMS NEAR
06N92W...AND EXTENDS SW TO 04N112W...THEN TURNS NW THROUGH
07N125W THEN SW TO BEYOND 05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 104-127W. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS SEPARATED FROM THE
ITCZ AND IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM 07N133W TO 11N133W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN
150 NM E AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
 
...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N128W AND IS SHIFTING NE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRONG NE TRADE WINDS...ROUGHLY ACROSS THE
TROPICS FROM 11-19N W OF 126W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9-14 FT.
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE
MIXING WITH FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO EQUATOR AT 85W RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NE THE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX WITH THE AREA OF STRONG TRADES SHIFTING TO THE W OF
133W ON THU. 

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ACROSS THE NW DISCUSSION 
WATERS BY SUNRISE WED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT
32N140W ON WED AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN BAJA ON
FRI IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY POST-FRONTAL LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SEAS HEIGHTS UP TO 18 FT NEAR 32N140W ON
THU. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE FORECAST W OF A LINE FROM 32N122W
TO 13N140W ON FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A STRONG GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NW-N 20-30 KT
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN 20-25
KT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 15-20 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 FT IN LONG FETCH OPEN AREAS
BETWEEN 25-27N.
 
$$
NELSON