000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302218 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON NOV 30 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IS COMBINING WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT FRESH N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE W AND NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AND A PERSISTENT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE NE TROPICAL PACIFIC. GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS FUNNELING ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED QUICKLY TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DOWNSTREAM SEAS REMAIN IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE BUT WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT BECOME CONFINED ONLY TO THE WATERS N OF 14.5N. FRESH N WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING FURTHER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WED THROUGH THU IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE GALE CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N87.5W TO04N103W TO 06.5N125W TO 06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W.ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF ITCZ WOF 112W. ...DISCUSSION... STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. COMBINED WITH TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO AND THE SIERRA MADRES SUPPORTS STRONG N-NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT THROUGH THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS HAVING BUILT AS HIGH AS 10 FT S OF 26.5N. MORNING AND AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOWED MOST OF THE GULF S OF 28N WITH SOLID25 KT WINDS...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF WINDS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH VERY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE GULF...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KT THU NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DEPICTED AS A STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRES N AND S OF 30N...EXTENDS FROM 31N130W TO 28N144W. WINDS ARE VERY WEAK NEAR THE FRONT AS A RESULT OF THE DISRUPTED PRESSURE GRADIENT. A RIDGE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OVER N WATERS N OF 18N W OF 114W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED OUT ENE TO WSW BETWEEN 115W AND 135W IS MAINTAINING AN ELONGATED ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS S OF 20N TO A LINE FROM 16N118W TO 08.5N133W TO 08.5N140W WHERE VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT PREVAIL IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL. THIS AREA OF FRESH NE TRADES IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT WSW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WED WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND LARGE NW SWELL AND FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT LATE WED AND THU. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SWEEP ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA WED NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT. GAP WINDS... THE STRONG GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE NE TROPICAL PACIFIC ISWEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAKENING WINDS ACROSS THEWANDNW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE FAVORED GAP WIND AREAS ACROSSTHE REGION WILL SEE A LAST PULSE OF 20 KT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA...WHILE THE PAPAGAYO REGION REACHES 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT. GAP WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO MORE LOCALIZED AREAS AND PEAK AT 15-20 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. $$ STRIPLING