000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC SUN NOV 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE PRESENT SYNOPTIC SET-UP
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS
HELPING TO INDUCE A PRESENT GRADIENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE
ONGOING GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO FUNNEL OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE WINDS...CURRENTLY IN THE RANGE OF 30-35 KT
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS MAXING
OUT TO 14 FT FEET OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE CULPRIT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON ALLOWING
FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 30 KT WITH SEAS LOWERING
TO 10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 02N83W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 03N92W TO 05N100W TO 06N112W. THE
ITCZ THEN RESUMES NEAR 09N125W TO 06N135W TO 03N140W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-128W
...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W-137W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W-110W.

...DISCUSSION... 

THE REMNANT LOW OF SANDRA IS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N108W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1010 MB. THE LOW IS
LOSING ITS IDENTITY...AND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AS IT MOVES
INLAND THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE STATE OF SINALOA. IN ITS
WAKE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN OF THE U.S.
WILL INTERACT WITH TROUGHING NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND INDUCING A QUICK SURGE OF NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT DOWN THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT BY EARLY ON MON WITH SEAS BUIDING
TO 9 FT. THE WINDS THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BACK TO 20-25 KT EARLY
TUE WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT.
                                       
A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS AT 32N122.5W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SW TO 28N125W AND TO 27N132W. A 1023 MB
HIGH CENTER IS WSW OF THE FRONT AT 28N138W WITH BROAD RIDGING N
OF 22N W OF 128W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN ELONGATED AREA OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS FROM
08N-19N W OF 128W AND FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 118W-128W. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF 9-12 FT SEAS THERE. THIS AREA OF
STRONG NE TRADES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WSW AS RIDGING BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TODAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 120 NM NW OF THE FAR NW CORNER OF
THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE WEAK AS IT ENTERS THE
FAR NW PART OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
...HOWEVER LARGE NW SWELL WITH BRING LARGE SEAS IN THE RANGE
OF 10-13 FT TO THOSE WATERS THROUGH MON MORNING.

THREE LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 110W AND 135W AND ARE SHIFTING SLOWLY W...AND PRODUCING
A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. OTHERWISE...
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY SINKING MOTION
PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN N PACIFIC.

GAP WINDS... 

THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR THE ONGOING GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT WILL ALSO BE FAVAROBALE FOR STRONG NE
WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF FONSECA
THROUGH MAINLY MON MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SMALL AREA OF WINDS 
TO OCCUR LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE...BUT
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT EARLY ON TUE. FRESH TO AT TIMES
BRIEFLY STRONG N WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA
TONIGHT AND EARLY ON MON...THEN DIMINISH TO MODEARE INTENSITY
EARLY MON AFTERNOON BEFORE MATERIALIZING AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT
WITH RELATED SEAS OF 5-7 FT.

 
$$
AGUIRRE