000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250938
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC WED NOV 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                

HURRICANE SANDRA WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 109.0W AT 0900 UTC
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SANDRA COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR THU. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N-18N BETWEEN 100W-113W. SANDRA IS FORECAST
TO TURN TOWARD THE NW LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE N
EXPECTED THU. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ACCORDING TO
THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES. NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN THESE WINDS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE TODAY. THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL VERY GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAY. WINDS ARE EXCEPTED TO PULSE AGAIN TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE EARLY THU MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON
AFTER THE PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ABATES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N83W TO 09N100W...
THEN CONTINUES FROM 08N113W TO 05N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS
ANALYZED FROM 05N119W TO 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER N WATERS FROM 32N120W TO
30N130W...WITH 20-25 KT N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PROPAGATED
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE
FOUND ACROSS WATERS N OF 30N AND EXPECTED TO REACH 8-14 FT EARLY
THU MORNING N OF A LINE FROM 30N117W TO 24N130W TO 29N140W. 

THE 1009 MB POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR
21N124W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A TROUGH BY TONIGHT.
THE PRES GRADIENT N-NW OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM
EARLY THU THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRI IN THE AREA FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 123W-132W.

 
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A TIGHT PRES PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S LINGERS
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THIS MORNING. A FRESH TO STRONG E-NE
BREEZE CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AT NIGHT BEFORE REPEATING THE PATTERN
BEGINNING EARLY THU MORNING. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER NE WATERS WILL PASS THROUGH THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH S-
SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OF 30N. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WIND HERE COULD REACH THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25
KT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN PRIOR
RUNS HAD SHOWN.

$$
SCHAUER