000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240943
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC TUE NOV 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                

NEWLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM SANDRA WAS CENTERED NEAR 10.8N
105.0W AT 24/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS
40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT
WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM N AND NW QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 180 NM SW
QUADRANT. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NW FORECAST BY WED.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
SANDRA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WED. SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED FOR
COOL...DRY AIR TO MOVE OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNRISE TODAY WITH MAXIMUM SEAS GREATER THAN 20 FT. SHIP PBAD
REPORTED 19 FT SEAS NEAR 15N94W AT 0400 UTC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND DROP BELOW GALE
FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON BEFORE AGAIN REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE
EARLY THU MORNING DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO
09N96W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 09N113W TO 08N120W. THE ITCZ AXIS
WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N120W TO 07N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1008 MB POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR
21N122W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER 50 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A FRESH BREEZE IS
BELIEVED TO PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE LOW THIS MORNING. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A TROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY TO THE NW.

HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO
THE N NEAR 50N145W. TRADES CONTINUES TO BE A GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZE ACCORDING TO THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FAR N WATERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH N-NW WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER FAR NE WATERS BY EARLY WED MORNING. NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE EXPECTED OVER
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 133W BY EARLY WED MORNING. SEAS
WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING AND THE
SWELL PROPAGATES AS FAR S AS 21N124W.
 
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A TIGHT PRES PATTERN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO
THE S HAS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THIS MORNING. A FRESH TO
STRONG E-NE BREEZE CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AT NIGHT BEFORE
REPEATING THE PATTERN BEGINNING EARLY WED MORNING. 7-9 FT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING
NW SWELL TO THE NE WATERS WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY WED THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. S-SW WINDS
AT THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF 30N. 

$$
SCHAUER