000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240247 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE NOV 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E CENTERED NEAR 10.9N 104.6W AT 24/0300 UTC OR 487 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER... EXCEPT 90 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN A BAND BETWEEN 120 NM AND 300 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY TUE MORNING...THEN TO A HURRICANE BY WED EVENING. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH ASSISTANCE BY A SIGNIFICANT NEARBY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT...HOWEVER AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES AWAY FROM THAT AREA IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW...THEN WILL TURN W-NW BY LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RECURVE TO THE N AND N-NE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS AND HAS ALLOWED FOR COOL..DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SEAS GREATER THAN 20 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE BY LATE TUE MORNING...THEN TO FRESH TO STRONG BY LATE WED MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 11N100W THEN RESUMES FROM 10N107W TO 12N122W TO 09N128W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N128W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N137W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W...FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 96W AND 99W...AND ALSO S OF 04N BETWEEN 132W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...THE DYING POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW RICK IS CENTERED ABOUT 420 NM WNW OF CLARION ISLAND NEAR 20.5N121.5N MOVING NW ACROSS COLD SSTS. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS LOW...BUT AN EARLIER ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS STILL SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS LINGERING IN THE N QUADRANT. SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO 8 FT IN THIS SAME AREA. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TONIGHT...AND REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 20N THROUGH LATE WED. MEANWHILE STRENGTHENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ONSET OF ASSOCIATED FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT LIKELY REACHING SOCORRO ISLAND BY EARLY THU. MEANWHILE...TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY MID-WEEK. S-SW WINDS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG N OF 29.5N BY EARLY WED...DIMINISHING BY LATE WED AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. S OF 15N E OF 120W...A TIGHT PRES PATTERN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE U.S. LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S HAS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A FRESH TO STRONG E- NE BREEZE IS EXPECTED IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW BEFORE SUNRISE. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AT NIGHT BEFORE REPEATING THE PATTERN BEGINNING EARLY TUE MORNING...AND YET AGAIN THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS OF 7-9 FT ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE SW SWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL EMERGING OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HAS BEEN COMPROMISED BY TWO COLD FRONTS N OF THE AREA. TRADES HAVE WEAKENED TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACCORDING TO THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. ONE OF THE COLD FRONTS IS FORECAST TO REACH FAR N WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...WITH N-NW WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER FAR NE WATERS JUST N OF 30N BY EARLY WED MORNING. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 29N115W TO 21N125W TO 26N130W TO 30N140W BY WED EVENING. $$ LEWITSKY