000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232109 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON NOV 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E CENTERED NEAR 10.8N 102.9W AT 23/2100 UTC OR 404 NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING W AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM IN THE N QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATE TONIGHT...THEN TO A HURRICANE BY WED AFTERNOON. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH ASSISTANCE BY A SIGNIFICANT NEARBY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT...HOWEVER AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES AWAY FROM THAT AREA IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW...THEN WILL TURN W-NW BY LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RECURVE TO THE N AND N-NE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS ALLOWING COOL..DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE MEASURED OVERNIGHT BY ASCAT SCATTEROMETERS TO BE 40-45 KT PRIOR TO PEAK DRAINAGE. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SEAS GREATER THAN 20 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...THEN TO FRESH TO STRONG BY WED AFTERNOON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N99W THEN RESUMES FROM 09N104W TO 08N113W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N137W THEN TROUGH TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...THE DYING POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW RICK IS CENTERED ABOUT 360 NM WNW OF CLARION ISLAND MOVING FARTHER TO THE NW INTO COOLER WATER. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS LOW...BUT A VERY RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS STILL SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE N QUADRANT WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO STILL LIKELY 8-9 FT. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TONIGHT...AND REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 20N THROUGH LATE WED. MEANWHILE STRENGTHENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ONSET OF ASSOCIATED FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT LIKELY REACHING SOCORRO ISLAND BY EARLY THU. MEANWHILE...TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY MID-WEEK. S-SW WINDS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG N OF 29.5N BY EARLY WED. S OF 15N E OF 120W...A TIGHT PRES PATTERN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE U.S. LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S HAS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A FRESH TO STRONG E- NE BREEZE IS EXPECTED IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW BEFORE SUNRISE. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AT NIGHT BEFORE REPEATING THE PATTERN BEGINNING EARLY TUE MORNING...AND YET AGAIN THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS OF 7-9 FT ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE SW SWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL EMERGING OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HAS BEEN COMPROMISED BY TWO COLD FRONTS N OF THE AREA. TRADES HAVE WEAKENED TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACCORDING TO THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. ONE OF THE COLD FRONTS IS FORECAST TO REACH FAR N WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...WITH N-NW WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER FAR NE WATERS BY EARLY WED MORNING. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS IN THE 8- 10 FT RANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 27N115W TO 23N120W TO 23N126W TO 30N137W BY WED AFTERNOON. $$ LEWITSKY