000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230258 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON NOV 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS MOVED E OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CHIVELA PASS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ARE NOW LIKELY APPROACHING STORM FORCE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE BEING INDUCED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER WARM WATER TEMPERATURES PROMOTING VERTICAL MIXING AND BRINGING THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE SURFACE. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH GALE CONDITIONS THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT OF THE IMPRESSIVE WINDS... SEAS WILL BUILD TO GREATER THAN 22 FT. BROAD LOW PRES ESTIMATED AROUND 1006 MB WAS ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11.5N96.5W MOVING WNW AROUND 10 KT. SPORADIC AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A PLUME OF STRONG NE TO E WINDS EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW PRES MOVES WEST THEN NORTHWEST TOWARD THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE THIS WEEK. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11.5N96.5W 1006 MB TO 09N103W TO 11N107W THEN RESUMES FROM 12N119W TO 09N127W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N127W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 92W...FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 104W...AND ALSO FROM 03N TO 07N W OF 134W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW RICK 1006 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N119.5W. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION REMAINS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS HOWEVER WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY 20-30 KT WITH ASSOCIATED 8-11 FT SEAS. RICK WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 24 HOURS AND THEN RESIDUAL SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 48 HOURS. HIGH PRES 1029 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. THIS ALONG WITH LOWER PRES IN THE FORM OF POST-TROPICAL RICK NEAR CLARION ISLAND HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... HOWEVER THE HIGH HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY WITH THE PRES GRADIENT THUS SLACKENING...AND WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. LOOKING AHEAD...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY SWELL TO 9 FT. MEANWHILE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ONSET OF ASSOCIATED FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT POSSIBLY REACHING SOCORRO ISLAND BY THU. S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE 1006 MB LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11.5N96.5W...AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG PLUME EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS STATED ABOVE. OTHERWISE A TIGHT PRES PATTERN BETWEEN HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S WILL SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MON MORNING. A FRESH TO STRONG E-NE BREEZE IS EXPECTED IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN N PACIFIC HAS BEEN COMPROMISED BY TWO COLD FRONTS PASSING WELL N OF THE AREA. TRADES HAVE WEAKENED TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS AS THE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED. SWELLS GENERATED BY EARLIER STRONGER TRADES HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ LEWITSKY