000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222155 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW RICK CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 119.1W AT 22/2100 UTC OR 591 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS. RICK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS MOVED JUST E OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CHIVELA PASS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER WARM WATER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL PROMOTE VERTICAL MIXING AND BRING THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE SURFACE. A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING BY 00 UTC MON THROUGH AT LEAST MON EVENING. AS A RESULT...SEAS WILL BUILD TO GREATER THAN 20 FT. BROAD LOW PRES ESTIMATED AROUND 1006 MB WAS ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11.5N95.5W MOVING WNW AROUND 5-10 KT. SPORADIC AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A PLUME OF STRONG NE TO E WINDS EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW PRES MOVES WEST THEN NORTHWEST TOWARD THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE THIS WEEK. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 12N96W TO 08N102W TO 13N114W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N136W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W...FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W...AND ALSO FROM 04N TO 09N W OF 134W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...STRONG 1033 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. THIS ALONG WITH LOWER PRES IN THE FORM OF POST-TROPICAL RICK NEAR CLARION ISLAND TYPICALLY SERVES AS A GOOD PATTERN FOR SUPPORTING STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES DID INDICATE SUCH WINDS N OF 30N W OF 114W IN THE GULF. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY WED... ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY SWELL TO 9 FT. MEANWHILE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ONSET OF ASSOCIATED FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING SOCORRO ISLAND BY THU. S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE 1006 MB LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11.5N95.5W AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG PLUME EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS STATED ABOVE. OTHERWISE A TIGHT PRES PATTERN BETWEEN HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S WILL SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MON MORNING. A FRESH TO STRONG E-NE BREEZE IS EXPECTED IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...PULSING DURING THE DAY MON AND RETURNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD TUE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN N PACIFIC HAS BEEN COMPROMISED BY TWO COLD FRONTS PASSING WELL N OF THE AREA. TRADES HAVE WEAKENED TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS AS THE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED. SWELLS GENERATED BY EARLIER STRONGER TRADES HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ LEWITSKY