000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 118.5W AT 22/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 575 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 08 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT BUT WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS RICK MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 06 UTC INDICATED SEAS ARE STILL REACHING AS HIGH AS 14 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. RICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING...DISSIPATING WED. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL REACH CHIVELA PASS LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS BEHIND IT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE PASSAGE OF THE COOLER...DRIER AIR OVER WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE VERTICAL MIXING AND BRING THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE SURFACE. A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING BY 06 UTC MON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUE MORNING. AS A RESULT...SEAS WILL BUILD TO GREATER THAN 20 FT. BROAD LOW PRES ESTIMATED AROUND 1006 MB WAS ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N94W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOT OBSERVED DIRECTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW PRES...BUT RATHER WELL TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW PRES WILL DRIFT WESTWARD EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A PLUME OF STRONG NE TO E WINDS EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WINDS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW PRES MOVES WEST THEN NORTHWEST TOWARD THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE THIS WEEK. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N94W 1006 MB TO 10N110W TO 13N110W TO 09N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N133W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ALONG WITH LOWER PRES IN THE FORM OF T.D. RICK NEAR CLARION ISLAND WOULD TYPICALLY SERVE AS A GOOD PATTERN FOR SUPPORTING STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LATEST ASCAT DATA HOWEVER INDICATES GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IN FACT...THE GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND IS DISPLACED EASTWARD AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER TROUGHING MOVING TOWARD THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF RICK DRIFT NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOOKING AHEAD...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY SWELL TO 9 FT. MEANWHILE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ONSET OF ASSOCIATED FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING SOCORRO ISLAND BY THU. S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE 1006 MB LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N94W AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG PLUME EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS STATED ABOVE. OTHERWISE A TIGHT PRES PATTERN BETWEEN HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S WILL SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MON MORNING. A FRESH TO STRONG E-NE BREEZE IS EXPECTED IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...PULSING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE DAY MON AND RETURNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY TUE MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HAS BEEN COMPROMISED BY TWO COLD FRONTS PASSING WELL N OF THE AREA. TRADES HAVE WEAKENED TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS AS THE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED. SWELLS GENERATED BY EARLIER STRONGER TRADES HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 8 FT. FARTHER S...AN AREA OF CROSS- EQUATORIAL MIXED SW AND NW SWELL HAS BROUGHT COMBINED SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE TO THE AREA S OF 03N BETWEEN 102W AND 127W. THIS SWELL WILL DIMINISH...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 8 FT BY EARLY MON MORNING. $$ CHRISTENSEN