000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220932 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 117.9W AT 22/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 560 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. RICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST- TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY EARLY MON MORNING...DISSIPATING EARLY THU MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL REACH CHIVELA PASS LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS BEHIND IT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE PASSAGE OF THE COOLER...DRIER AIR OVER WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 31 CELSIUS WILL PROMOTE VERTICAL MIXING. A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING BY 06 UTC MON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUE MORNING. AS A RESULT...SEAS WILL BUILD TO GREATER THAN 20 FT. BROAD LOW PRES ESTIMATED AROUND 1006 MB WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 101W TO A LINE FROM THIS LOW PRES CENTER TO 15N93W. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AROUND 5-10 KT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N95W 1006 MB TO 12N110W TO 08N124W TO 10N131W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N133W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N133W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 06N-08N E OF 80W AND FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 83W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS N OF THE AXIS E OF 101W TO A LINE FROM LOW PRES NEAR 11N95W TO 15N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 123W-128W AS WELL AS S OF THE AXIS TO 04N W OF 131W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HAS BEEN COMPROMISED BY TWO COLD FRONTS PASSING WELL N OF THE AREA. TRADES HAVE WEAKENED TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS AS THE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED. SWELLS GENERATED BY EARLIER STRONGER TRADES HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 8 FT. FARTHER S...AN AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SW AND NW SWELL HAS BROUGHT COMBINED SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE TO THE AREA S OF 03N BETWEEN 102W AND 127W. THIS SWELL WILL DIMINISH...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 8 FT BY EARLY MON MORNING. GAP WINDS.... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A VERY TIGHT PRES PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER NW MEXICO. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE N-NW WINDS UP TO 30 KT N OF 30N THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LOCAL RESEARCH STUDY INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY FOR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS. WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A GALE WARNING AS CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A TIGHT PRES PATTERN BETWEEN HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S WILL SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MON MORNING. A FRESH TO STRONG E-NE BREEZE IS EXPECTED IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...PULSING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE DAY MON AND RETURNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY TUE MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING. $$ SCHAUER