000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                

TROPICAL STORM RICK CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 115.9W AT 21/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 500 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W
AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST MAINTAINS RICK AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN WEAKENS IT TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SUN AFTERNOON. RICK IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW LATE SUN NIGHT...DISSIPATING BY WED AFTERNOON. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING HOWEVER
THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. THESE WINDS WILL BE
FUNNELED THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY SUN
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST 10-M 45 KT
WINDS BY SUN EVENING AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX DOWN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH 30-M WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 60 KT AND
925 MB WINDS 65 KT. THUS A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
BEGINNING BY 06 UTC MON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. LARGE SEAS WILL
BUILD AS A RESULT TO GREATER THAN 20 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 11N92W TO 13N108W
THEN RESUMES FROM 12N115W TO 08N123W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N132W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N132W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 91W
AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 98W AND 103W...FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W...
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM
SE OF THE AXIS W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A VERY TIGHT PRES PATTERN IS IN THE PROCESS
OF SETTING UP OVER NW MEXICO WITH RECENT VALUABLE SCATTEROMETER
DATA ALREADY SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE GULF N OF
30N W OF 113.5W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
WINDS UP TO 30 KT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WHILE A LOCAL RESEARCH
STUDY EVEN INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY FOR MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS. WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME AS
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT AS A RESULT OF THE WINDS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A TIGHT PRES PATTERN WILL SETUP ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA BY MON MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG FLOW
EXPECTED IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE MON MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
                                            
A WEAKENING 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR
34N140W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO NEAR
24N124W. TRADES HAVE WEAKENED TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS AS THE
HIGH AND ATTENDANT RIDGE HAVE WEAKENED. FRESH SWELLS GENERATED
BY EARLIER STRONGER TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.                                       

$$
LEWITSKY