000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES 1007 MB IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N109W.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION BELOW. MORNING
AND AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE IMMEDIATE AREA OF
THE LOW. WHILE THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION NEARBY...
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
REGARDLESS...THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 08N91W TO LOW    
PRES NEAR 12N109W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N127W TO 09N134W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N134W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240-360 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 95W...FROM
07N TO 09N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...WITHIN 150-270 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 117W...AND WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 11N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE
OF THE LOW NEAR 12N109W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 113W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF
THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS
AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SPREAD S AND SE
OUT OF THE MOUTH OF THE GULF THROUGH WED IMPACTING THE WATERS
BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND CABO SAN LUCAS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA ALSO SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FILTERING THROUGH BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR PASSAGES TO THE SW OF THE PENINSULA. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS
SOMEWHAT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THU AFTERNOON...
LIKELY CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE...HOWEVER CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...A STRONG EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S-SE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N W OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM
THE COAST NEAR 21N105W TO 17N115W. A 1034 MB HIGH LINGERS N OF
THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 35N135W WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES ALONG
AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE RESULTING IN
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND W OF 110W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND
SHIP REPORTS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THIS AREA.
ALTIMETER DATA MEASURED SEAS UP TO 15 FT NEAR 25N122W WHICH WAS
1-2 FT ABOVE AVAILABLE WAVE GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND THE PRES GRADIENT BEHIND IT WILL
GRADUALLY SLACKEN ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS BY 48 HOURS. RESULTANT SWELLS WILL THEN BE ALLOWED TO
SUBSIDE TO 11 FT OR LESS BY THEN AS WELL.

AN AREA OF FRESH SW WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT IS
OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN
84W AND 88W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$
LEWITSKY