000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.               
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CARIBBEAN LOW PRES 1007 MB
NEAR10.5N81W TO 09N86W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 12.5N108.5W TO
LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 13.5N125W TO 10N129W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 08N140W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04N TO 08.5N E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 180 NM S OF
TROUGH AND LOWS BETWEEN 107W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS ACROSS N CENTRAL
MEXICO TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 23N106W TO 20N110W TO
18N130W...THEN AS A DISSIPATING FRONT TO 20N140W. A 1033 MB HIGH
LINGERS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 35N135W AND
IS PRODUCING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO ITS S AND SE...BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/TROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MOST OF
THE AREA N AND NW OF FRONT FRONT WITH 20-30 KT WINDS...AND
EXTENDING S TO THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W. THE HIGHEST WINDS
OF 25-30 KT WERE DEPICTED ACROSS A LARGE AREA N OF A 1007 LOW
PRES CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR 13.5N125W...FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN
121W AND 140W. LARGE SEAS PREVAILED ACROSS THIS AREA AT 10
TO16FT IN MIXED NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER S-SE OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS AND LOSE SOME OF IT'S VIGOR S OF 20W AS IT NEARS THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND WARM SST'S. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND SUPPORT LARGE NW SWELL SWEEPING ACROSS
NE WATERS MIXING WITH FRESH NE WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE A VERY
LARGE AREA OF HIGH SEAS NORTH OF 07N W OF 106W THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND NELY WINDS WEAKEN.

AN AREA OF FRESH SW WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT IS
OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN
88W AND 96W THIS MORNING...AND WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N
WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SPREAD S AND SE BEHIND AND ACROSS THE COLD FRONT TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AND AFFECT THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND CABO
SAN LUCAS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING THU MORNING...AND CONTINUING
FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND.

$$
STRIPLING