000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 12N104W TO LOW PRES NEAR
13N125W 1008 MB TO 10N129W...THEN ITCZ TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N-09N E OF 87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 107W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD... AND EXTENDS FROM
24N107W TO 20N117W...THEN AS A DISSIPATING FRONT TO 20N140W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 20-30 KT WINDS N OF THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W...WITH HIGHEST WINDS N OF A 1008 LOW
CENTERED NEAR 13N125W...FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W.
THE FRONT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS VIGOR S OF 20W AS IT NEARS THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND SUPPORT
LARGE NW SWELL SWEEPING ACROSS NE WATERS MIXING WITH FRESH NE
WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH SEAS NORTH OF
07N W OF 106W THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WED
NIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND NELY WINDS WEAKEN.

AN AREA OF FRESH SW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT IS
EXPECTED S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH WED...IN RESPONSE TO
AN AREA OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF PANAMA IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N
WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS TODAY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING THU MORNING...AND CONTINUING
FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND.

$$
MUNDELL