000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.               
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 11N100W TO LOW PRES
1007 MB NEAR 13N126W TO 11N130W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N130W
TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN
BE FOUND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W...FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 104W AND 110W...AND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 110W AND
120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
120W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE S-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM MAINLAND MEXICO JUST N OF
CULIACAN...ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 20N125W WHERE
IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE THEN CONTINUES TO 22N140W. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 16-17
FT FOLLOW THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN THESE STRONG WINDS...AND CONTINUE TO CREATE LARGE
NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE NE WATERS AND PACIFIC WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE
ALSO OCCURRING BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS
SCENARIO IS PRODUCING A VERY LARGE ZONE OF HIGH SEAS OF 9 TO 14
FT IN MERGING NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES THAT COVERS THE WATERS
N OF 09N W OF 110W. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH THROUGH WED. WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THIS ZONE UNTIL WED NIGHT AND THU.

THE GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHER GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
GULF THIS EVENING IS SUPPORTED BY A STRONG AND DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A
VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SW U.S. IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND UNUSUALLY HIGH SEAS. MOST OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO SEE FRESH TO STRONG NW TO
N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY
TUE. 

AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT
IS EXPECTED S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TUE AND WED...IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF PANAMA IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GAP WINDS...                                                

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF
AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK AS WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. A
RECENT ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS OF 6-7 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF TO NEAR 12N.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT REACHING 20 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC...
WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF.

$$
GR