000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT N OF 29.5N
THROUGH 17/0000 UTC. A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY IS SUPPORTED BY A STRONG AND DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A
VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SW U.S. IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND UNUSUALLY HIGH SEAS. THE COLD
FRONT IS NOW REACHING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF...WITH
STRONG W TO NW WINDS BEHIND IT. NORTH PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
MOVING THROUGH GAPS IN THE TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND
SPILLING ACROSS THE GULF IN NARROW PLUMES...OCCASIONALLY
REACHING SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8 FT ACROSS FAR NE PORTIONS THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT AND
THEN VEER MORE NW TO N TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BLASTING 20-25
KT WIND DOWN THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY TUE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 12N105W TO LOW PRES
1008 MB NEAR 14.5N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W AND
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE S-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON..EXTENDING FROM MAINLAND MEXICO NEAR LOS
MOCHIS...ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 25N112W TO 22N125W
TO 22N140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 15-16
FT FOLLOW THE FRONT FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN
THESE STRONG WINDS...AND CONTINUE TO CREATE LARGE NW SWELL
MOVING INTO THE NE WATERS AND PACIFIC WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENTLY...N TO NE WINDS 20-30 KT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE FRONT...WHILE NE TO
E WINDS 20-30 KT ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING A VERY LARGE ZONE OF HIGH
SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT IN MERGING NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES S OF
THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 10N W OF 112W. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS N
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH WED. WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THIS ZONE UNTIL WED
NIGHT AND THU.

AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT
IS EXPECTED S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TUE AND WED...IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF PANAMA IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GAP WINDS...                                                

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF
AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK AS WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF REACHING 20 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC...WITH SEAS
OF 6-7 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF.

$$
GR