000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                     
1005 UTC MON NOV 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N96W TO 11N100W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 15N124W 1008 MB TO 09N140W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90-150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
101W-132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF
05N BETWEEN 80W-85W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN WATERS EXTENDS FROM
30N116W TO 26N123W TO 25N140W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING N
OF AREA ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW LATER TODAY WITH 20-30 KT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AFFECTING MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE W OF 110W. HIGHEST SEAS TO 14-17 FT ARE EXPECTED IN WATERS
N OF 26N E OF 123W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING.
AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0540 UTC SHOWED AN AREA OF 25-30
KT WINDS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 126W-134W.

A LOW PRES AREA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N124W
IS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
REGION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR WHILE IT DRIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT
IS EXPECTED S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA LATE TONIGHT AND TUE...IN
RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF PANAMA
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GAP WINDS...                                                

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSING DIRECTLY
OVER THE REGION AT 0400 UTC SHOWED MAX WINDS OF 30 KT. FOR THIS
REASON...THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. N TO NE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AS WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING NORTHERN WATERS
WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG W-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N. STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY...WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS
FUNNELING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AND ACROSS WATERS
BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY EARLY TUE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF REACHING 20 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC...WITH SEAS
OF 6-7 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF.

$$
MUNDELL